中印服务贸易竞争力:差距源自何处

China and India’s Service Trade Competitiveness: Source of the Gap

本文选取2005--2015年中印两国服务贸易数据，在对中印两国服务贸易出口规模及结构比较的基础上，利用贸易竞争指数和显示性比较优势指数比较了中印国际竞争力，之后建立回归模型考察了中国服务贸易竞争水平落后于印度的原因，最后对中印两国的贸易互补性进行测度。结果显示，中印两国在贸易结构上差异明显；中国仅在商品相关服务和建筑服务上表现出优势，印度在其余多个部门上均具有竞争力，中印两国在金融服务、专有权利和政府服务上尚有很大发展空间，中国的贸易条件总体趋向恶化，而印度在不断改善；开放水平较低、FDI规模较小、税收不够合理、商品贸易比重较高是影响中国服务贸易竞争力的几个重要因素；印度出口与中国进口的吻合程度较高，中印双边服务贸易有很大的发展空间。

Utilizing the data of service trade from 1992 to 2015, this paper first makes a comprehensive comparison of two countries＇ scale and structure of service trade, and uses Trade Competitive Index and Revealed Comparative Ad- vantage Index to compare the international competitiveness of China and India, and then establish a regression model to examine the reasons why the competitiveness level of China＇s service trade lags behind India, and finally measure trade complementarity between the two countries. The results reveal that China＇s service trade on scale and growth rate is much larger than India. The difference of export structure of China and India is obvious, travel is the largest pro- portion of China＇s service trade, and the proportion of telecommunications, computer, and information services of In- dia is much higher than that of China. India＇s service trade export structure changes slightly larger than China in the past 11 years. In terms of competitiveness, China＇s international competitiveness of China has a long way to catch up with India, showing only advantages in goods-related services and construction, while the rest sectors in India are all competitive. However, there is still much room for development in financial services, intellectual property and govern- ment services for both two countries. In the long run, China＇s terms of trade tend to deteriorate, while India is improv- ing. The low level of opening, small scale of FDI, unreasonable tax structure, higher proportion of goods trade are among many important factors affecting the competitiveness of China＇s service trade. The complementarity between India exports and China＇s imports is strong, Sino-Indian bilateral trade in services has big development space.