民用飞机维修间隔风险评估方法研究

Research on Risk Assessment Methods of Civil Aircraft Maintenance Interval

鉴于维修间隔对飞行安全的重要性,针对民机维修间隔的风险评估问题,结合部件故障预测与机队风险评估模型,提出了基于蒙特卡罗仿真的民机维修间隔风险评估方法。通过实例对飞机总温探头的故障时间进行仿真,预测了机队飞行事故的发生次数,得出几种不同维修间隔方案的风险因子和飞行事故率。结果表明维修间隔风险水平与实际情况吻合,证明提出的方法能有效地对维修间隔的风险进行定量评估,具有一定的实用性。

ABSTRACT： Considering the importance of the maintenance interval for flight safety and aiming at the risk assess- ment for civil aircraft maintenance interval, combined with the component failure risk prediction and risk assessment model of aircraft fleet, the paper put forward an evaluation method of civil aircraft maintenance interval risk based on Monte Carlo simulation. Through the simulation for fault time of aircraft temperature probe, we predicted the flight ac- cident occurrence of the aircraft fleet, obtained flight accident rate and risk factors of several different maintenance in- terval. Results show that the risk level of the maintenance interval coincides with the actual situation and the proposed approach can effectively evaluate the risk of the maintenance interval, which has a certain practicality.