经济政策不确定性与企业金融化

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Financialization

当前中国出现的经济"脱实向虚"问题引起了学术界的广泛关注。国内外研究均表明,经济政策不确定性上升将显著抑制企业实体经济投资,那么,此消彼长,企业金融化是否也是经济政策不确定性上升的结果?本文采用2007—2015年沪深两市上市公司的季度数据,利用实证分析解答了这一问题。分析结果表明:总体看,经济政策不确定性上升显著抑制了企业金融化趋势。分地区和行业看,经济政策不确定性对企业金融化趋势的抑制效应在中西部地区、竞争更激烈的行业更为显著。进一步的研究表明,经济政策不确定性提高不仅会对企业金融资产投资的总量造成影响,还会对企业金融资产配置结构产生影响。企业出于金融市场风险和经营风险的考虑,会减持投机性金融资产,并且增持保值性金融资产。本文还发现,受融资约束更弱的企业,其金融化趋势受经济政策不确定性上升的抑制作用更大。这表明中国企业金融化的主要动机是利润追逐,而非预防性储蓄。本文的研究对政府引导经济"脱虚向实"有一定的参考价值。

Recent economy in China has driven from entity to virtual which has drawn much attention in academia. Both domestic and foreign studies have shown that increase in economic policy uncertainty （EPU） would restrain real sector investment. Is corporate financialization the result of economic policy uncertainty rising？ This paper uses the empirical quarterly data of all＂A＂ share listed companies from 2007 to 2015, to empirically answer the question. The results show that, in general, increase in EPU would restrain financialization trend. In terms of region and industry, the negative effect of EPU on corporate financialization is more pronounced in the middle and western regions, and industries of intense competition. Further analysis shows that EPU will not only impact enterprises＇ financial investment scale, but also will affect financial assets structure. Firms would reduce the investment level of speculative financial asset, and increase long-term value reserving financial investment in consideration of financial market risk and business risk. Finally, the paper also finds that, enterprises＇ financialization trend with lower financial constraint, is more sensitive to the rise of economic uncertainty, which suggests that speculating is the essential motivation of enterprises＇ financialization in China, rather than precautionary saving. The paper provides some reference for government to lead corporate investment back to real sector.