城市国民经济与社会发展规划碳排放评估综合指标体系构建与应用——以上海市为例

The Establishment and Application of Comprehensive Indicator System for Carbon Emission Evaluation from the Perspective of Urban National Economy and Social Development Plan:Taking Shanghai as an Example

以《上海市国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》为例，借鉴国内外城市综合低碳评估指标体系，构建了5大主题层包括17项具体指标的城市国民经济和社会发展规划碳排放评估综合指标体系。将该评价指标体系应用于上海市碳排放评估，计算了上海市2005--2015年的低碳化发展指数，以及四种不同发展情景下的综合低碳化发展指数。历史回顾评价显示，上海市的低碳化水平在逐步提高。同时预测未来在资源环境效率持续改善的发展模式下，社会经济的快速发展有利于促进城市朝着低碳高效的方向发展。建议上海市采取降低总能耗、提高能源利用效率、调整优化产业结构与能源结构，进一步促进经济与社会的低碳化发展。

Based on the existing research of comprehensive low-carbon evaluation index system at home and abroad, this study takes The Twelfth Five-Year Plan of National Economy and Social Development in Shanghai as an example, the comprehensive indicator system of carbon emission assessment for national economic and social development planning （including 17 indexes with five thematic layers） was constructed. This evaluation indicator system is applied to the empirical research of Shanghai, including the calculation of low-carbon index of Shanghai from 2005-2015 and low-carbon index of four different development scenarios in the future. The history evaluation indicating that Shanghai＇s low-carbon level is gradually increased. In the future, with the sustainable improvement of resource and environmental efficiency, high speed of economy will promote the low carbon level of the city. It is suggested that Shanghai could adopt a combination of reducing total energy consumption, improving energy efficiency, adjusting and optimizing the industrial and energy structure, so as to further promote the low-carbonization level of economy and society.