泰州市港口物流与区域经济协调发展的协整分析——基于1995-2015年的经验数据

Empirical Analysis on Coordinated Development between Port Logistics and Regional Economic in Taizhou City——Based on the Empirial Data of 1995-2015

文中以泰州港为例,从协整分析和格兰杰因果关系的角度对泰州市1995年以来的20年来地区生产总值(GDP)以及港口货物吞吐量这两个时间序列进行研究。协整检验结果表明:1995-2015年泰州市货物吞吐量与GDP之间存在一种长期均衡稳定的关系。格兰杰因果检验表明:泰州市港口货物吞吐量是GDP的单向格兰杰原因,而泰州市GDP不是港口货物吞吐量的单向格兰杰原因。研究结果表明,泰州港口物流增长会对泰州市经济增长起促进作用,反之泰州市经济对物流的拉动作用却不是很明显。

Taizhou,as the geometric center of Jiangsu province,plays a very important role in the whole province layout.However,compared with the coastal port logistics,the industry port of Taizhou started relatively late,have poorer infrastructure,because its port logistics development is restricted by its industrial structure and the natural conditions. This paper explored the econometric co-integration theory,and analyzed the relationship between Taizhou economic and its port from the perspective of co-integration analysis and granger causality analysis. We can draw conclusions that the relationship between Taizhou port logistics and Taizhou economic growth is long-term,stable and balanced,and the relationship between Taizhou port logistics development and Taizhou economic growth is mutual interaction and mutual promotion,but the degree of influence each other is different.