RCEP对中国制造业经济影响的评估——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析

Estimating Economic Impact of RCEP on China's Manufacturing Industry: A Simulation Analysis Based on GTAP Model

作为亚太地区重要的区域经济一体化机制,区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)的国际关注度不断高涨。本文运用GTAP模型,在三个更贴近现实的模拟方案中分别从部门产出、出口规模、进口规模和产品附加值四个方面定量评估RCEP的建立可能对中国细分制造业带来的经济影响。研究结果显示:RCEP关税减免将使中国资本或技术密集型的机械设备等制造业产出和附加值下降、纺织服装等劳动密集型部门产出和附加值上升;进出口贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应明显,但变动程度存在部门异质性;RCEP贸易自由化程度越高,其对中国细分制造业部门产生的经济影响越大。本文还分别从规则谈判和产业升级两方面提出促进中国制造业发展的政策建议。

As an important regional economic integration mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region, RCEP enjoys the rising international attention. In this paper, we use the GTAP mode] to quantitatively evaluate the economic impact of the establishment of RCEP on China＇s manufacturing sector segmentation under three more realistic simulation from four aspects respectively： output, import, export and added value. The results show that： RCEP＇ s tariff reduction will make China＇s capital or technologyintensive manufacturing sectors＇ , such as machinery and equipment sectors, output and added value decrease, but make laborintensive sectors＇ , such as textile and garment sectors, output and added value increase; Trade creation and trade diversion effect on import and export are obvious, but the degree of the change in different departments is heterogeneous; The higher the degree of trade liberalization of RCEP is, the greater the economic impact it has on China＇s subdivision manufacturing sectors. At the end of the paper, some suggestions are put forward to promote the development of China＇s manufacturing industry from the aspects of negotiation rules and industrial upgrading respectively.