社会政治视角下战争走向分析

Analysis of War Trend in Social and Political Perspectives

战争会向哪里去?这是所有热爱和平的人们十分关注的一个重大现实问题。近年来,尽管战争还在世界各地不时发生,但战争的威慑作用越来越受到重视,所以军事威慑与战争行动交互影响的色彩在将来很有可能会进一步加重,军事威慑的功能很可能会进一步放大。如果发生战争,也会越来越倾向于发生在军事实力相差悬殊的各方之间。即便在这种情况之下,军事实力占优的一方依然还会以不断扩大这种差距为前提。从社会政治的视角看,各种政治同盟作为战争背后的推手,越来越成为遏制战争或者以战争相威胁的一个不利因素。同时也要看到,尽管有些国家仍在谋求以政治结盟的方式寻求战争的代理人,但代理人的觉醒与这些国家继续寻求代理人的冲动之间,已经形成一种影响战争走向的新的张力场。此外,以意识形态的标准来选择建立同盟的缔约方,已经引起资本主义私有制基础上的垄断性与全球化经济的开放性之间的根本性矛盾,因此即便这样一种选择的初衷真的是为了避免战争,但结果一定是为战争埋下祸根。再者,选择以民主人权的名义点燃战争的导火索,似乎给自己披上了一件华丽的合法化外衣,但衣角处却总要暴露出与之完全相悖的政治企图。可以预见的是,未来一段时间爆发局部战争的可能性并不能完全排除,但是受到国际社会和平力量来自政治、军事、外交乃至经济等方面因素的有力遏制,意图发起战争的一方完全有可能由此推迟甚至最终放弃战争。从人类社会发展的整个历程看,只有世界人民真正携起手来,同舟共济、包容互鉴,才能共同创造人类的美好未来。

Where will the war go？ This is a major realist issue of great concern to all peace-loving people. Inrecent years, although the war is still happening all over the world from time to time, the deterrent effect of waris getting more and more attention. Therefore, the interaction between military deterrence and war actions is like？ly to increase further in the future and the function of military deterrence is likely to further enlarge. In the eventof a war, the main body of war will also tend to be more and more inclined to happen between parties whose mil？itary capabilities are disproportionately different. Even under such circumstances, the party that has the over？whelming military strength will still be presupposing the ever-widening of this disparity. From a socio-politicalpoint of view, all kinds of political alliances, as the pushing hands behind the war, are increasingly becoming anegative factor in containing or threatening wars. At the same time, we should also see that although some coun？tries are still seeking war agents by way of political alliance, between the awakening of agents and the impulse ofagents that these countries to continue seeking, has formed a new tension field affecting the direction of war. Inaddition, the choice of parties to establish alliances on the basis of ideological standards has caused a fundamen？tal contradiction between the monopoly on the basis of capitalist private ownership and the openness of the globaleconomy. Therefore, even if the original intention of such a choice is really for the sake of avoiding war, the re？sult must be a curse for the war. Furthermore, the choice of a fuse to ignite the war in the name of democracyand human rights seems to have given itself a gorgeous legalization coat, but it has always revealed a completelycontrary political attempt. It is foreseeable that the possibility of a partial war breaking out in the near future willnot be completely ruled out. However, this will be effectively deterred by factors such as political, military, dip？lomatic and even economic forces from the peace forces in the international community which will contain theparty intending to launch a war, It is entirely possible for the party to postpone or eventually give up the war.From the entire course of the development of human society, only when the people of the world truly join handsand help each other and learn from each other can we create a better future for mankind.