我国居民房贷杠杆测算及未来趋势研判

Measurement and Future Trend Judgment of Housing Mortgage Leverage in China

本文比较了我国与美日居民部门房贷总杠杆率和边际杠杆率,重新测算了我国居民名义购房交易杠杆,并在不同情景下,对我国居民实际购房交易杠杆进行估算。此外,从房贷偿付能力、房贷偿还压力、居民部门贷存比等角度,对我国居民部门房贷加杠杆的空间进行探讨。研究表明,虽然房贷总杠杆率仍略低于日本,但边际杠杆率远超美国和日本当前水平,并已与美国的峰值水平相当。此外,我国名义购房交易杠杆倍数已从2012年的0.5倍上升至2016年的1.5倍,而实际购房交易杠杆倍数应已在2倍以上。综合各项指标,我国居民房贷偿付能力正经受巨大考验,已超过美日房地产泡沫前期,与此同时,我国居民部门已从年度资金净融出部门转变为资金净融入部门,未来房贷加杠杆的空间已越来越小,房地产加杠杆带来的泡沫风险应引起高度警惕。

This article compares the total leverage and marginal leverage of the housing mortgages in China,the United States and Japan.The article not only recalculates the nominal housing transaction leverage multiple in China,but also the actual leverage multiple under different scenarios. In addition,from the perspective of mortgage repayment ability,mortgage repayment pressure and resident loan-to-deposit ratio,this paper discusses the space for leverage in China's residential sector. Research shows that although total mortgage leverage is slightly lower than Japan's,marginal leverage has far exceeded current levels of United States and Japan and basically the same as the peak level of United States. In addition,China's nominal housing transaction leverage multiple has risen from 0.5 times in 2012 to 1.5 times in 2016,while the actual purchase transaction leverage should have been more than 2 times. Taking all the indicators into consideration, the solvency of the residents in our country is undergoing tremendous pressure and has surpassed those during the real estate bubble periods in the United States and Japan. At the same time,the household sector in our country has been changed from the annual net financial lending department into the net capital-in-lending sector. In the future, the space for leverage in China's residential sector has become smaller and smaller.High vigilance should be paid to the huge bubble risk of real estate.