基于可拓综合评价法的干旱区水资源承载力评价——以河西走廊地区为例

EVALUATION OF WATER RESOURCES CARRYING CAPACITY IN ARID AREA BASED ON EXTENSION COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION METHOD——A CASE STUDY IN HEXI CORRIDOR

[目的]水资源是经济社会发展依赖的重要资源,水资源短缺是制约干旱区经济社会发展的瓶颈。通过研究,了解河西走廊干旱区水资源可持续开发利用状况,实现该区域社会经济良性发展。[方法]文章构建了水资源承载力评价指标体系,利用可拓综合评价法对河西走廊地区真实情景期(2003~2015年)、仿真情景期(2016~2025年)的水资源承载力进行测评。[结果](1)2003~2015年,河西走廊地区5市水资源承载力综合水平总体上呈波动上升趋势,武威市从强赤字承载波动上升为弱赤字承载。金昌、张掖、酒泉、嘉峪关从强赤字承载过渡到临界承载状态。(2)2016~2025年,水资源承载力综合水平呈逐步上升态势,武威和张掖从临界承载逐步上升为盈余可承载,金昌和酒泉由临界承载逐渐演变为基本可承载,而嘉峪关的综合水平虽然一直处于强赤字承载,但对应的关联度已经从2016年的-0.073下降为2025年的-0.259。[结论]农业用水量比重大,农业生产效益低下,水资源开发利用率高,成为制约该区域水资源可持续开发利用的瓶颈。

Water resource is important for economic and social development. Water shortage has become a botle-neck restricting the economic and social development of arid areas. In order to understand the sustainable develop-ment and utilization of water resources in Hexi Corridor, and achieve the healtliy development of social and econom-ic in the region, this paper establislied the evaluation index system of water resources carryured the water resources carrying capacity level of Hexi Corridor in true scene period （2003 ~2015） and the simu-lation scenario period （2016 ~2025 ） . The results showed that（ 1） From 2003 to 2015 , the comprehensive level of water resources carrying capacity in the five cities of Hexi Corridor showed an fluctuated upward trend on the whole. The comprehensive carrying capacity level of water resources rose from the strong deficit bearing in Wuwei, and from the strong deficit bearing to the critical carrying state uquan, and Jiayuguan. （2） From 2016 to 2025, the comprehensive level of water resources carrying capacity will be a gradually increasing trend from the critical bearing to surplus bearing in Wuwei and Zhangye, and graduallyfrom the critical bearing to a basic bearing in Jinchang and Jiuquan. The degree of correlation decreased from -0. 073 in 2016 to - 0. 259 in 2025. Because the proportion of agricultural water use was large, agricultural pro-duction eficiency was low, and water resources development and utilization rate was hment and utilization of water resources in the region was restricted.