收益原则视角下中国下游碳贸易平衡

Analysis of downstream carbon trade balance based on income principle

基于多区域投入产出模型的戈什模型,以中国为主要研究对象,核算并分析了1995~2011年全球41个国家和地区的下游碳贸易平衡.结果表明,研究期间内中国收益侧碳排放远小于直接碳排放,下游碳贸易平衡年均增长率达11.92%,中国是收益侧碳排放最大的净进口国.日本、美国、德国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚及巴西等国对中国收益侧碳排放净出口规模不断扩大,中国已经成为这些国家和地区收益侧碳排放转移的重要目的地之一.建立以收益原则为基础的碳排放责任核算体系有利于建立更加公正和有效的碳减排方案,有利于中国主张合理的碳排放责任原则和实行有效的碳减排政策.

China was taken as the main research object. This paper estimated 41countries and regions’ downstream carbon trade balance. The result calculated has shown that China’s estimated responsibility of income-based carbon emission was lower than what China was supposed to take on direct carbon emission, and the downstream carbon trade balance was increasing with an annual growth rate of 11.92% during 1995 to 2011. The result calculated indicated that China was the largest net importer on income-based carbon emission. Countries such as Japan, the United States, Germany, Russia, Australia and Brazil has increasingly exported income-based carbon emission to China year by year. China became one of important destinations for income-based carbon emission exports from these countries. Carbon emissions accounting inventory was constructed using the income principle to facilitate the establishment of a more effective and fairer carbon reduction framework, as well as to aid China＇s proposition of rational carbon emissions principle and effective carbon emission reduction policies.