太阳能光热发电技术成熟度预测模型

Prediction model of concentrating solar power technology maturity

研判光热发电(concentrating solar power,CSP)技术发展进程,可为全球能源互联网规划和建设提供重要参考依据。建立基于S型曲线的光热发电技术成熟度(global energy interconnection,GEI)预测模型,通过整理分析光热发电技术专利信息,对模型参数进行回归分析,进而预测未来典型年份光热发电的技术成熟度,并分析政策驱动和资金投入对光热发电技术发展进程的影响。研究表明,当前光热发电技术成熟度较低,仍处于技术发展期的初级阶段,预计在2032年左右,全球光热发电技术高度成熟,将进入大规模商业化应用阶段,在北非、南美洲东西海岸、我国西部等地区推进大型光热电站建设,支撑全球能源互联网构建。

Judging concentrating solar power（CSP） technology trend could provide critical reference for global energy interconnection（GEI） planning and construction. The technology maturity prediction model of CSP based on S-shaped growth curve was established,and the CSP patent information was collected and the model parameters regression analysis was made in order to predict the technical maturity of CSP in the future. The impact on CSP technology trend from policy driven and capital investment was studied. The results showed that the current maturity of CSP was much lower,which was still in the early technology development stages. CSP technology maturity would reach a high degree by 2032,entering extensive commercial application stage. Large-scale CSP stations which were built in North Africa,South East and West coast of the Latin America,western China and other regions,would play an important role in supporting the construction of GEI.