基于LASSO方法的我国城乡居民食物消费结构影响因素研究

Influence factors of urban and rural residents' food consumption structure based on LASSO method

选取可能对居民食物消费结构产生影响的11个因素,通过LASSO方法分别筛选了对农村和城镇居民粮食、蔬菜、肉类、蛋、奶、水产品及鲜瓜果消费量产生影响的因素,并进行定量分析。研究结果表明:不同食物之间消费量的影响因素并不相同,不同人群即农村和城镇居民之间食物消费结构的影响因素也不尽相同;宏观经济因素人均GDP对城乡居民食物消费结构的影响非常微弱;人均可支配收入只对收入较低的农村居民产生影响,对城镇居民的食物消费没有影响;影响城乡居民蔬菜消费的主要因素是居民消费价格指数,且两者之间存在负向关系;人口老龄化率是城镇居民肉类消费的主要影响因素,且随着人口老龄化率的提高,肉类消费量增加,而该因素并不对农村居民肉类消费产生影响。

In this paper,we selected 11 influence factors which might effect residents' food consumption structure. The LASSO method was used to select influence factors which effect the urban and rural residents' consumption of grain,vegetables,meat,eggs,milk,aquatic products and fresh fruits respectively and to quantitative analysis. The results showed that: the consumption of different food had different impact factors;there were different affecting factors between urban and rural residents;macro-economic factor per capita GDP had slightly effect on the food consumption structure of urban and rural residents;per capita disposable income only effected on rural lowincome residents' food consumption but didn't impact urban residents';the main influence factor of urban and rural residents' vegetable consumption was the consumer price index,and there was a negative relationship between them;the rate of aging population was the main effecting factor of urban residents' meat consumption which increased as the rate raise,but it didn't affect the rural residents' meat consumption.