地缘关系是资本账户开放的重要影响因素吗

Does Geographical Relationship Affect Capital Account Openness

本文使用2001--2013年51个国家之间的资本账户开放差异数据，实证检验地缘因素对资本账户开放的重要影响，研究发现：双边地理距离越小，两国之间资本账户开放程度的差异越小；除双边地理距离之外，其余“亲密”关系的增加并不一定会导致双边资本账户开放程度差异的降低；资本账户开放程度的差异同样受制度、经济及国家规模差异等因素的影响。该结论在区分流入流出管制、不同类别子账户管制、使用不同地理距离指标、控制多边效应和面板分位数模型回归等一系列稳健性检验中保持一致。此外，通过结合中国地缘关系特征，本文进一步指出中国周边国家较低的资本账户开放程度是制约中国资本账户加速开放的重要原因。

By use of a data of 51 countries＇ bilateral capital account openness differences from 2001--2013, this study investigates to what extent the geographical relationships exert impact on capital account openness. It is found that the difference of degree of capital account openness between two countries is statistically positive correlated with bilateral geographical distance. However, increases in other familiarity elements are not necessary to narrow the differences in the degree of capital account. In addition, differences in capital account openness are also significantly correlated with other factors such as institutions, economic development level and country sizes. The main conclusions of this study are robust across a series of robust tests, such as distinguishing between capital outflow and inflow controls, considering different capital account categories, using alternative geographical distance indicators, controlling for multi-resistance effect and applying panel quantile regression model. Moreover, with an analysis of China＇s geographical relationships, it is pointed out that China-rim countries＇ low degree of capital account openness is an important factor that hampered China＇s capital account openness.