汇率变动与企业新产品创新——来自人民币汇改的证据

Exchange Rate Movement and New Product Innovation:Evidence from Exchange Rate Regime Reform in China

汇率作为开放宏观经济中的重要价格，能够通过影响微观主体的行为而影响宏观经济变量。本文将利用匹配的中国工业企业数据库和海关数据库来分析和研究汇率变动对企业新产品创新的影响，并采取倾向性得分匹配和双重差分的方法来识别汇率变动与企业新产品创新之间的因果关系，尝试从微观层面揭示汇率在中国经济转型和增长驱动模式转变中的重要角色。本文的研究结果表明，人民币实际升值影响了企业面临的竞争环境，进而影响到企业新产品创新行为，使得企业加大了新产品的创新力度，人民币实际有效汇率的变化能够解释2003年至2006年企业新产品创新行为变化的6％。人民币实际升值有助于促进产业升级和结构调整，使经济增长更多地依赖于创新活力的增强。

As one of the most important prices in macro economy, exchange rate could affect variables in macro economy through its influence on individual. The paper will use the matched Chinese industrial enterprises database and Customs Database to investigate the casual effect of exchange rate movement on new product innovation at firm level by the propensity score matching method as well as the difference in differences method. Additionally, the paper attempts to reveal the crucial role played by exchange rate in the process of Chinese economy transformation and restructuring. The results show that real appreciation of RMB affects the competition environment faced by the firms, and thus affects the new product innovation of the firms. Specifically, the changes in real appreciation of RMB could explain 6 % changes in new production innovation of the firms from 2003 to 2006. The exacerbation of market competition induced by real appreciation of RMB is one important cause for the corporate innovatiom This is helpful for the upgrading of industrial structure and the .transition of Chinese economic growth pattern in the long run.