Modeling Analysis on the Relationship between Fruit and Leaves Damaged by Basilepta melanopus Lefevre on Camellia oleifera Abel

茶角胸叶甲为害油茶叶片与果数关系的建模分析（英文）

[Objective] Camellia oleifera Abel is a typical woody oil plant in China and it has many functional components. Since it was first found in 1980, Basilepta melanopus Lefevre has become the pest with outbreak area, which makes the yield and quality of camellia seed oil suffer great losses. The aim was to provide refer- ences for the field damages and prediction of Basilepta melanopus Lefevre based on severity of damage and the actual need for prediction of B. melanopus. [Meth- ods] The investigation was carried out to study the average number of wormholes in damaged leaves, average number of fruit per branch and leaf damage rate caused by B. melanopus using point-survey systematically at Yong＇an Town of Changsha, Hunan Province from early May to middle June in 2014. Six functions were used to find the optimal model through fitting to calculate the threshold of mean wormhole number. [Results] The cubic equations had the best effects in fitting the 3 pairs of variables of average wormhole number and camellia fruit, camellia fruit and leaf damage rate, and wormhole number and leaf damage rate, and the variance analy- sis reached the extreme significant difference （P〈0.05）. [Conclusion] Based on these mathematical models, the threshold of wormhole number is 5.01 per leaf.

[目的]茶油是我国特有的木本油脂,具有较高的营养价值与独特的保健功能。而茶角胸叶甲自1980年首次发现,至今已成为油茶上一种大面积暴发的害虫,给油茶产量和质量都带来了严重的损失。基于茶角胸叶甲为害的严重性及其预测之需,本实验旨在为角胸叶甲的田间为害情况及预防预测提供参考。[方法]该研究于2014年5月上旬到6月中旬在湖南省长沙市永安镇系统、定点调查油茶上茶角胸叶甲为害叶片平均孔洞数、単枝平均果数和叶片受害率,用6种函数拟合寻找最优函数计算叶片平均孔洞数的防治指标。[结果]叶片平均孔洞数与果数、果数与叶片受害率、叶片平均孔洞数与叶片受害率3对变量用一元三次函数拟合效果最佳,方差分析达到极显著性水平。[结论]根据最佳拟合方程得出茶角胸叶甲在油茶上防治指标为叶片平均孔洞数5.01个/片。