粮食布局、非农就业与土地流转——基于CHIP2013的分析

Grain Distribution, Non-Farm Employment and Land Transfer:An Analysis Based on CHIP2013 Date

利用CHIP2013数据,采用OLS和Mvprobit模型考察不同粮食布局和非农就业对农户土地流转面积和方式选择的影响,研究发现,非农就业机会选择会显著降低土地流转,非农就业工资比例、非农就业时间则正向显著影响土地流转。粮食主产区的农民倾向于土地流转,非农就业提升了粮食主产区对土地流转的促进作用;粮食主销区的农民不倾向于土地流转,非农就业提升了粮食主销区对土地流转的抑制作用;粮食平衡区对土地流转的影响不显著,加入非农就业变量后仍不显著。粮食主产区的农民更倾向于有偿流转给个人,粮食主销区和平衡区的农民则不愿意流转给个人;相对于流转给村集体,农民更倾向于选择有偿流转给个人和有偿流转给企业或农业大户。为进一步提高粮食安全保障水平,应该按照粮食布局区别对待农户土地流转,并对非农就业制定不同措施。

By making use of the CHIP2013 data, this paper examines the impact of grain distri- bution and non-farm employment on the area and mode selection of farmers＇ land transfer with OLS and Mvprobit models. The findings show that the non-farm employment opportunity can significantly reduce the size of land transfer, while the payroll scale and time of non-farm employment can have a significant positive impact on land transfer. The farmers in the major grain producing areas tend to transfer their land, and the non-farm employment can enhance this promotion effect; while the farmers in the major grain sale areas do not tend to transfer their land, and the non-farm employment can enhances this inhibition effect; as for the grain balanced areas, there is no significant effect on land transfer, it is not significant even if the variable of non-farm employment is added. The farmers in the major grain producing areas are prefer to transfer their land to individuals with compensation, while the farmers in the major grain sale areas and the balanced areas are not willing to transfer their land to individuals; compared to transferring their land to the village collective, the farmers pre- fer to transfer their land to individuals, enterprises or large farmer-households with compensation. In order to further raise the level of grain safety guarantee, we should treat farmers＇ land transfer differ- ently in accordance with the distribution of grain production, and formulate different policies for non-farm employment.