什么引致了农村居民贫困风险——来自贫困脆弱性测度和分解的证据

What leads to the rural household's risk of poverty——Measurement and decomposition of poverty vulnerability

对贫困风险成因的分析有助于更具前瞻性地推进精准扶贫。采用CLDS数据测度了表征贫困风险的贫困脆弱性,采用基于R2的夏普里值分解法分析了引致因素及贡献度,并运用Order Probit模型考察了贫困脆弱的转换动因。研究发现,个体具备更高教育水平和社会资本、从事非农工作、迁移,以及家庭获得融资都有助于降低贫困脆弱性,但父辈劣势的代际传递会提升贫困脆弱性;个体在教育、非农就业以及健康方面的差异对贫困脆弱性贡献最大;有9%和24%的个体分别经历过持续性脆弱和暂时性脆弱,健康冲击是导致转换到(或持续陷入)贫困脆弱的重要原因。因此,系统性的扶贫策略需要在当前促进贫困群体的非农就业,并持续通过教育和健康扶贫来阻断贫困陷阱。

Analyzing the origin of the poverty helps to reduce poverty predicted. Based on the CLDS data, this paper firstly measures the rural household＇ s poverty vulnerability ; then answer a question that which economic - social status contributes to the poverty vulnerability most, by the method of Shapley Value Decomposition; and finally analyzes the dynamic reason of status transformation in poverty vulnerability using Order Probit model. Results Show that individual factors such as education, non - agricultural job, social capital and immigration, family background including productive loan all help to decrease the poverty vulnerability; however, the disadvantage from intergenerational transfer leads to higher poverty vulnerability. According to the contributions, the difference among individual＇ s education, non - agricultural job and health explain most part of poverty vulnerability. In addition, 9% and 24% of samples have fell into transient and persistent poverty vulnerability respectively, and healthy problems are viewed as the main reason of translating to higher poverty vulnerability. Consequently, the systematic poverty reduction solutions should not only pay attention to the poor＇ s no - agricultural job opportunities right now, but also take some measures including education and health to eliminate the poverty trap in the long time.