产业结构、生产率与经济增长“减速”:基于日本都道府县面板数据的实证分析

Industrial Structure,Productivity,and Economic Growth“Slowdown”:An Empirical Analysis of Panel Data from Japan at County Level

在测度产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化以及全要素生产率指标的基础上,根据二元经济理论的两部门经济增长模型,利用2002 2013年日本都道府县宏观面板数据,实证考察日本产业结构、全要素生产率与经济增长的内在关系。研究发现,日本产业结构不合理显著不利于经济增长;产业结构高级化以及全要素生产率提升是经济增长的重要推动力;扭转产业结构不合理给经济增长带来的负向效应,主要是得益于产业政策驱动生产要素,完成产业集群形成的产业链下生产要素在生产率不同部门之间的流动和再配置;但由于全要素生产率的低下,严重束缚产业结构高级化对经济增长的正向效应释放;此外,劳动生产率、劳动力利用效率、政府消费性支出以及社会固定资产投资均对日本经济增长有显著的促进作用。

According to the two-sector economic growth model of dualistic economic theory,the paper empirically studies the inner relationship among the industrial structure,total factor productivity and economic growth with the macro panel data of Japan Metropolitan Government from 2002 to 2013,which is based on measuring the index of rationalization of industrial structure,industrial structure advanced and total factor productivity.It is concluded that the unreasonable industrial structure of Japan is unconducive to economic growth.Industrial structure advanced and productivity improvement are important drivers of economic growth.To reverse the negative effects of unreasonable industrial structure on economic growth owes to the industrial policy drives factors of production,and completes the flow and reallocation of factors of production between different sectors of productivity,which is under industrial chain formed by industrial agglomeration.However,due to the low total factor productivity,the positive effect of the advanced industrial structure on the economic growth is restraint to be released.In addition,labor productivity,labor efficiency,government spending and social fixed asset investment play a significant role in promoting economic growth in Japan.