影响供给侧改革的有效因素分析

Analysis of the Effective Factors Affecting Supply-side Reform

供给侧改革是中国在经济新常态下提出的引领经济发展方式转变的重大战略举措,旨在通过供给侧改革,实现提高生产效率和满足社会有效需求的重要目标,这两个目标落到实处就表现为经济具有规模报酬递增的特征。基于规模报酬的视角,在Logit模型中,利用极大似然估计,对供给侧改革的有效影响因素进行分析。实证结果表明:东、中部经济区呈现规模报酬递增的特征,而西部经济区呈现规模报酬递减的特征;技术创新、市场开放度和所有制结构是影响中国经济规模报酬的重要因素,并且技术创新和市场开放程度越高,国企占资比越低,规模报酬递增的概率越大。因此,为了有效推进供给侧改革,应提高技术创新和市场开放度,鼓励大众创业发展民营经济,优化所有制结构。

Supply - side reform is a significant strategic measure to lead the transformation of eco- nomic development under the background of the New Normal of China＇s economy, aiming to achieve the goal of improving the efficiency of production and satisfying the effective demand of the society through the reform. The specific performance of realizing the two goals is that the economic system has the characteristics of increasing return to scale. Based on the perspective of return to scale, the paper analyzes the effective factors which affect supply -side reform by using the rnardmum likelihood estima- tion in a Logit model. The empirical results show that the economic zones of the eastem and central China have the characteristics of increasing return to scale while the economic zones in western China has the characteristics of diminishing retum to scale. Technological innovation, market openness and ownership structure are the effective factors which influence supply - side reform. The higher the tech- nological innovation and market openness, the lower of the capital ratio of state -owned enterprises, and the higher probability of increasing return to scale. Therefore, in order to effectively promote the supply -side reform, authorities should improve technological innovation and market openness. At the same time, the public should be encouraged to set up their own enterprises to promote the development of private economy and further optimize ownership structure.