重点生态功能区生态系统服务价值变化及预测

Ecosystem Service Value Change and Its Forecast in Key Ecological Function Area

[目的]对重点生态功能区(都江堰市)生态系统服务价值功能特征和变化趋势进行分析和预测,为该区域环境保护与合理城市开发目标的制定提供科学依据。[方法]以都江堰市1995,2007,2014年3期Landsat遥感影像解译的土地覆被数据为基础,使用Costanza的生态系统服务价值计算方法,谢高地2002版价值当量,经当量修正,敏感度指数检验后,评估都江堰市19a间生态系统服务价值及其变化。运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测其变化趋势。[结果](1)研究区土地覆被类型以森林、农田为主(共80%以上)。1995—2014年研究区土地覆被变化较大,生态用地减少。(2)1995—2014年研究区生态系统服务价值下降629.46万元。森林是研究区生态服务价值最大的系统(占83%以上),其次为农田、水体、草甸、未利用地。水源涵养、废气处理是都江堰市最突出的两项生态服务(共56%以上)。(3)利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了研究区2021—2035年土地覆被面积,结合精度检验预测此阶段生态系统服务价值将增加136.6万元,年均增长0.17%。[结论]区域生态系统服务价值减少的主要原因是以交通为代表的建设用地增加,导致生态服务价值系数较高的生态用地减少,而增加森林、水体等有较高生态价值的土地覆被类型是维持与提高区域生态功能的有效措施。

[Objective]The functional characteristics of ecological service and the variation trend of key ecological functional areas（Dujiangyan City）were analyzed and predicted to provide a scientific basis for environmental protection and goal determination of rational urban development for this region.[Methods]Based on the land cover data of three Landsat remote sensing images in 1995,2007 and 2014,calculation method of ecosystem service value from Costanza and the 2002 edition value equivalent method of proposed by Xie Gaodi in 2002 for regional correction,and combing coefficient of sensitivity,we discussed the changes of Dujiangyan＇s ecosystem service value from 1995 to 2014.Using the Grey Dynamic Model（1,1）,the development trend of ecosystem service value in Dujiangyan City were forecast.[Results]（1） In the study area,forest and farmland were two main factors,which accounted for more than 80% of the total area.The land cover changed a lot in 1995—2014,and the ecological land reduced.（2） The total value of ecosystem services decreased by629.46 million yuan during 1995—2014 in Dujiangyan City.Forest was the most valuable ecosystem in the area,which accounted for more than 83% of the total value,followed by farmland,water,grass and unusedland.Water conservation and waste gas treatment were two most prominent ecological services,which accounted for more than 56% of the ecosystem services in this area.（3） The GM（1,1）predicted the land cover change and ecosystem services value in the study area from 2021—2035.The results suggested that during this period,ecosystem services value will be slowly increased by 136.6 million yuan in the study area,and the average annual growth rate is 0.17%.[Conclusion]The increase of the traffic mainly caused the reduction of the regional ecosystem service value,leading to the decrease of ecological land area.The increase of those land cover types with high ecological values,such as forest and water is an effective measure to maintain and improve regional ecological functions.