应用时间序列分析对北京PM2.5浓度预测

Prediction of PM2.5 Concentration in Beijing Using Time Series Analysis

雾霾是特定气候与人类作用相互作用的结果。随着城市不断发展,城市人口的高度集中,人类通过汽车尾气、工业排放等途径产生的细小颗粒物数量大且集中。鉴于我国华北地区雾霾天气的严峻形势,通过探究雾霾天气的变化规律寻找其出现原因来帮助我们认识雾霾天气的污染来源。PM2.5是空气污染物之一,它能较长时间悬浮于空气中。虽然PM2.5只是地球大气成分中含量很少的组分,但它对空气质量和能见度等有重要的影响。在本文中,采用时间序列分析的方法,查找到中国北京的污染状况的统计结论。然后根据北京市数据,建立逐天、逐小时模型对北京市空气中PM2.5浓度进行预测分析。

Haze is the result of the interaction between a particular climate and humans. With the continuous development of the city, the urban population is highly concentrated, and the small particles produced by human beings through automobile exhaust, industrial emissions and other ways are large and concentrated. In view of the severe situation of haze weather in north China, the causes of haze weather pollution were found out by exploring the change law of haze weather. Pm2.5 is one of the air pollutants, it can be suspended in the air for a long time. Although PM2.5 is only a small component of the earth＇s atmospheric composition, it has important efects on air quality and visibility. In this paper, time series analysis method is used to fnd the statistical conclusion of the pollution situation in Beijing, China. Then, according to the data of Beijing, a daily and hourly model is established to predict and analyze the PM2.5 concentration in the air of Beijing city.