摘要
从实证的角度分析利率与住房价格关系，利用我国2000至2014年利率和住房价格指标的季度数据，运用协整检验和Granger因果检验分析方法一研究结果表明：基准利率与住房价格呈弱正相关性，考虑通货膨胀后的实际利率与住房价格呈弱负相关性；实际利率可以解释住房价格波动的56％；实际利率对住房价格的影响具有明显的时间滞后性，且体现在中长期内，而无论长期还是短期，住房价格都不会影响实际利率的变化．由此给出的政策建议是：深化利率市场化改革；保持利率政策的一致性和连续性；加强利率政策行业分类指导和调控．
This paper analyses the relation between interest rate and housing price from the empirical perspective, which using the quarterly data of interest rate and housing price index from 2000 to 2014, using the analytical method of cointegration test and Granger causality test. The results show that the benchmark interest rate is a weak positive correlation with housing price, inflation adjusted real interest rate and housing price showed a weak negative correlation; Real interest rates can explain the fluctuation of housing price 56%; On the one hand, affect the real interest rate on housing price has obvious time lag, and embodied in the medium to long term; On the other hand, regardless of long term or short term, housing prices will not affect the changes in real interest rates. Accordingly, policy suggestion is to deepen the reform of interest rate marketization, which keeps interest rates policy consistency and continuity and strengthening the interest rate policy of industry classification guidance and regulation.
作者
陈晓川
陈兰荪
CHEN Xiao-chuan;CHEN Lan-sun(Fujian Normal University Minnan Science and Technology Institute, Quanzhou 362332, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2018年第2期1-9,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(11171284)
福建省教育厅社科类基金(JB13490S)
福建师范大学闽南科技学院青年骨干教师重点培养对象基金(mkq201107)
