基于脉冲响应函数的降水和气温与径流变化的关系研究

Research of Relationship Between Runoff and Precipitation and Temperature Based on Impuls Response Function

依据渭河流域下游水文代表站和气象代表站1960～2005年的径流、降水和气温资料,采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法,对降水和气温与径流变化的关系进行研究.结果表明,降水对径流变化具有正向促进作用,径流对降水变化具有弱促进作用;气温对径流变化具有反向促进作用,径流对气温变化具有弱反向促进作用.径流的预测误差,主要来自于降水所做的贡献,其次是自身冲击和气温的扰动对其的贡献.

According to the 1960-2005 runoff, precipitation and temperature data of hydrological stations and the meteorological stations in the lower reaches of Weihe River, the relationship between runoff and precipitation and temperature was studied by using the impuls response function and variance decomposition method. The results show that precipitation has a positive effect on runoff change, runoff has a weak effect on precipitation change, temperature has a reverse effect on runoff change, runoff has a weak reverse promotion effect on temperature change. The prediction error of runoff mainly comes from the contribution of precipitation, followed by the contribution of self impact and temperature turbulence.