基于优化的灰色马尔可夫内蒙古电力需求预测模型

Frediction to Electricity Demand of Inner Mongolia Based on Optimization Gray Markov Model

针对电力需求随机性和波动性的特点,建立优化的灰色马尔可夫预测模型.利用该模型,对内蒙古自治区2006-2015年的电力消费数据,进行数值模拟.使用三种检验方法:残差、关联度和后验差对结果进行检验.实验结果表明:平均相对残差达到1.0%,关联度满意,后验差预测等级为好.在此基础上,对内蒙古未来五年的电力需求进行预测,并提出建议与对策,对内蒙古制定可行的电力发展规划方案具有参考价值.

The electricity demand has the characteristics of random and fluctuation,so this paper proposed a prediction model to electricity demand based on optimization gray Markov model. This paper selected data of electricity consumption in Inner Mongolia from 2006 to 2015, and established power consumption model based on the model. The results are checked in three ways which are correlation, residual and posterior difference. The result showed that the average relative error is 1%, and gain a satisfaction of association degree, and the model has better simulation result. Inner Mongolia＇s demands for electricityin the following three years are predicted by using the model, and some suggestions and solutions are also proposed,which are helpful for devising a feasible electricity development scheme.