2005—2015年中国人口与土地城镇化耦合协调的时空特征研究

SPATIAL & TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF COUPLING COORDINATION BETWEEN POPULATION AND LAND URBANIZATION IN CHINA FROM 2005 TO 2015

文章基于耦合协调模型,利用2005—2015年面板数据对我国31个省级行政单位人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合协调程度进行了时空分析。结果表明:1)全国人口城镇化水平远高于土地城镇化水平,但人口城镇化速率却低于土地城镇化速率,2015年人口城镇化水平和土地城镇化水平均呈现东部地区>中部地区>西部地区的特点;2)从时间维度来看,2005—2015年二者之间的耦合协调演变历程较为一致,呈现趋向协调的态势;3)从空间维度来看,二者之间的耦合协调程度分布由2005年的南北带状相间分布格局转变为2015年的零星失调分布格局。建议结合各省份的耦合协调程度、协调类型及区域间的非均衡性等因素,从户籍制度、土地集约利用和城镇化格局3方面改进,促进二者之间的协调发展。

This paper,based on the coupling coordination theory,uses the panel data of 31 provincial administrative units in China from 2005 to 2015 to analyze the temporal-spatial coupling degree between population and land urbanization.Population urbanization level is higher than land urbanization,but population urbanization rate is lower than land urbanization rate.The both population urbanization level and land urbanization level are falling westwards.The coupling coordination between 2005 and 2015 has almost the same evolution towards coordinated,but the spatial coupling coordination changed from SN zoned pattern in 2005 to a little disordered pattern in 2015.This paper presents suggestions on improving household registration system,land intensive use and urbanization pattern so as to promotetheir coordinated development in terms of provincial coupling coordination extents,types and regional non-equilibrium.