新农保参保行为影响因素的中西部跨省研究——基于1010份问卷的实证分析

Evaluating the Willingness to Enrollment in the New Rural Social Pension Insurance:An Empirical Evidence from 1010 Survey Data

在人口老龄化背景下,完善农村养老保障是社会保障可持续性发展的重点。立足新农保实施现状,探讨影响其需求和实施效果主要因素,有助于解决其推进难题。依托2015年云南、青海、贵州等横跨中西部地区7个省(市)1010份问卷调查,研究建立工具变量Logit(简称IV-Logit)模型,并通过两阶段回归法(2SLS)进行参数估计。研究发现:金融机构空间集聚对参保行为的影响具有显著正向影响。此外,新农保参保情况的地区差异较大。年龄大收入高、信息渠道广、养老模式单一的农户新农保参保率较高。同时,数据显示村委会等乡镇政府在推进农村社保中起重要的作用,体现了政府加大宣传解释力度、加强金融机构基础设施建设的必要性。

The new rural social pension insurance is an important part of the social security system in China. It is also a necessary program facing the acceleration of aging in the population. This paper evaluates factors that affect enrollment in the new pension insurance for rural residents. Surveys have been conducted in seven provinces and 1010 data collected for analysis. We discuss endogeneity problem and use IV-Logit for robust results. We compare results from linear regression, the logit and the IV-logit. We find that age, education, channels and satisfaction are all important factors in rural households＇ decision to participate in the new pension program.