2009-2015年江阴市细菌性痢疾流行特征及其与气象因素相关性分析

The Epidemic Characteristics and Relationship between Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery and Meteorological Factors in Jiangyin City From 2009 to 2015

目的探讨江阴市细菌性痢疾的流行特征及其与气象条件的关系。方法采用描述性流行病学方法分析2009-2015年江阴市细菌性痢疾的流行特征,通过直线相关分析和多元回归分析细菌性痢疾的发病与气象因素的关系。结果共报告细菌性痢疾731例,年平均报告发病率为6.89/10万。男女发病率分别为7.48/10万和6.26/10万,男女性别之比为1.26∶1;0~4岁组儿童发病数占19.70%;职业分布以农民发病数最高,占发病总数的29.69%;全年夏季高发,7-8月份达发病高峰。单因素相关分析结果显示菌痢月发病数与平均气温、平均降雨量呈正相关,与平均气压呈负相关,多元回归结果显示平均气温会直接影响菌痢的发病。结论细菌性痢疾是江阴市传染病防制工作的重点之一,气象条件对菌痢发病的影响,对科学防控菌痢具有参考意义。

Objective To explore the epidemic characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Jiangyin city and the relationship between the bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors. Methods Descriptive analysis was applied for the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Jiangyin city from 2009 to 2015; and liner correlation and multiple regression analysis were taken to analyze the relationship between the bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors. Results There were 731 bacillary dysentery cases reported, and average annually incidence was 6. 89/10^5. The incidence in male and female were 7.48/105 and 6. 26/105, respectively, the proportion of male to female was 1.26： 1. Children under 4 years old were accounted for 19. 70%. Farmers were primarily affected which were accounted for 29.69%. The peak incidence was in July to August. The correlation analysis showed that the number of monthly reported cases of bacillary dysentery were positive correlation with the average temperature and precipitation, negative correlation with barometric pressure. The result of linear regression also indicated that the incidence of bacillary dysentery was directly affected by average temperature. Conclusion Bacillary dysentery is one of the important contents for the prevention and control of coranmnicable diseases. Understanding the relationship between meteorological factors and epidemic trend of bacillary dysentery was of great significance for preventing and controlling bacillary dysentery more efficiently.