近十年影响云浮的热带气旋风雨分析及防御建议

Wind and rain analysis of tropical cyclones affecting Yunfu in recent ten years and defense suggestions

对2008-2017年影响云浮地区的热带气旋的登陆地点、登陆级别和所引起的雨风情况进行统计分析,找出近十年影响云浮的热带气旋的特点和预报关键参考指标,并提出四点防御建议。结果表明:(1)6到10月各月均有热带气旋影响云浮,其中8月最多,7月次之;(2)登陆地点在粤西、粤中和广东省以南地区时,大部都能给云浮带来明显风雨影响,特别是当级别达到台风级以上,且登陆时的强度在强热带风暴级以上,几乎都能带来暴雨以上降雨和全市性大风;(3)登陆地点和登陆时的级别可以作为预测预报云浮热带气旋风雨影响的主要参考指标。

This paper did a statistical analysis of the landing sites and landing levels of tropical cyclones that affected Yunfu region in September between 2008 to 2017, as well as the precipitation and wind caused by them. The purpose of this paper was to find out the characteristics of tropical cyclones affecting Yunfu in the past ten years, the key reference indicators for forecasting, and put forward four defense suggestions. The re- suits showed that： （1） from June to October therewere tropical cyclones in Yunfu, which occurred most fre- quently in August and July took second place; （2） when landing sites were in western, center, orsouthern Guangdong Province, most of tropical cyclones couldarouse precipitation and windin Yunfu, especially when the level reached to typhoon and the intensity of the landing was over severe tropical storm level, mostly could bring a rainstorm or a severer precipitationas well asa citywide gale; （3） landing location and landing level can be usedas the main reference index for precipitation andwind predictions in Yunfu.