贸易开放度与经济增长动力--基于产能利用和资本深化途径的再检验

Trade Openness and Motive Force of Economic Growth——Reexamination Based on the Channels of Capacity Utilization and Capital Deepening

基于两地区动态一般均衡模型,本文对"贸易开放→产能利用率→经济增长"和"贸易开放→资本深化→经济增长"两种渠道的传导效应进行了检验,分析了贸易开放促进经济增长的间接效应。理论模拟结果表明,贸易开放度的提高不仅能够产生引致需求和增进要素使用效率并提高产能利用率,还可以通过吸引投资加速资本积累和资本深化以扩大产出规模。本文还采用35个国家2002—2015年的数据构建了面板联立方程模型,对贸易开放影响经济增长的两条路径的有效性进行了验证。实证结果显示,贸易开放显著提高了产能利用率,推进了资本深化,促进了经济增长。与资本深化相比,产能利用率在贸易影响经济增长中的地位更为突出,化解产能过剩对经济增长的提升作用更为显著。

Based on the two-region dynamic general equilibrium model, in this paper, we examine the conduction effects of two channels： Trade Openness → Capacity Utilization → Economic Growth and Trade Openness → Capital Deepening → Economic Growth. The indirect effects of wade opermess on economic growth are analyzed. The simulation results show that elevating trade openness can not only lead to demand, enhance factor use efficiency and improve capacity utilization, but also attract investment to accelerate capital accumulation and capital deepening to expand the scale of output. We also specify a simultaneous equation model using the panel data of 35 countries from 2002 to 2015 to verify the effectiveness of the two paths of trade openness to economic growth. The empirical results show that Wade liberalization significantly increases capacity ufiliTation, deepens capital growth and boosts economic growth. Compared with capital deepening, capacity utilization is more prominent on the impacts of wade on economic growth. It is considerably important to achieve economic growth by resolving the overcapacity.