中国稀土国际市场势力测度及政策有效性研究

Measurement of the International Market Power of China's Rare Earth and the Effectiveness of Policy

本文基于买卖双方视角,运用拓展的SMR模型,选取13个中国稀土主要出口国为研究对象,对1992—2015年中国稀土出口贸易国际市场势力进行实证测度,并进一步探究中国稀土出口管制政策的效果。结果显示:整个阶段中国在国际稀土贸易出口市场中缺乏市场势力;从出口政策鼓励阶段到出口政策限制阶段中国稀土出口市场势力明显上升,反映出稀土出口管制政策成效显著。针对实证结果,本文从没有在源头上实行有效管控、国际市场改变供需结构应对出口限制、中国高端技术匮乏等角度具体分析了导致中国稀土市场整体势力缺乏的原因,并提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the perspective of buyers and sellers, this paper devel- ops the SMR model and selects 13 China＇s major export destinations during the period of 1992-2015 as the research object. This paper makes an empirical study on the international market power of China＇s rare earth export trade and further explores the effectiveness of China＇s rare earth export control policy. The results indicate that China lacks market power in the international rare earth trade export market during the whole period, and China＇ s rare earth market power shows an upward trend from the supportive period to the restrictive period, which indicates that the rare earth export control policies produce a remarkable effect. In view of the empirical results, this paper analyzes the causes of deficiency in the seller＇s market power, such as no effective control over the source, the change of supply and demand structure in the international market to deal with export restrictions, the lack of high-end technology in China and so on. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.