非对称贸易成本如何影响出口边际

How Does Asymmetric Trade Cost Affect Export Margins

本文利用1995-2013年CEPII BACI及全球投入产出数据,测度了中国的出口边际及非对称关税等价贸易成本。利用双向固定效应和2SLS对动态面板模型进行系统GMM估计,检验了中国与TPP协议国双边贸易成本对分解后5种不同出口边际的影响效果,结果显示:在控制了双边经济总量、汇率、对外直接投资、产业内贸易指数、有效技术研发水平及其他变量之后,贸易成本与出口边际呈显著"U型"关系,成本拐点显著存在;出口边际扩张存在显著时序惯性,价格边际和广度边际受到的影响幅度普遍偏高,敏感性高于数量边际和密度边际。未来中国出口结构升级的重点应依靠价格边际和广度边际的稳健扩张,而非传统意义上的数量边际扩张。

This paper measures the triple margins and ad valorem equivalent trade cost with the application of CEPII BACI and WIOD from 1995 to 2013. And also, we make two-way fixed effect regression and 2SLS GMM regression on dynamic panel model, and test the effect of trade cost on five different ex- port margins between China and TPP members. Our findings tell, after control- ling bilateral GDP, exchange rate, FDI, Intra-industry index, effective R＆D and other variables, trade cost and export margins show an ＂U-shape＂ relationship with a remarkable cost knee. The export margins expansion is obviously succes- sive, and the effect on price and extensive margins is higher and more sensitive than quantitative and intensive margins. The findings suggest China put more at- tention on price margin and extensive margin extension in the process of export structure acceleration, rather than the conventional extension of quantitative margin.