中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的影响因素研究--基于东道国制度环境因素

An Empirical Study of the Determinants of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment in the“Belt and Road”Countries——From the Perspective of Host Country's Institutional Environment

本文基于"一带一路"沿线30个国家2007—2015年10年间的面板数据,运用拓展引力模型就中国对"一带一路"沿线国家投资的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:东道国市场规模、东道国人均收入水平以及东道国资源禀赋是影响中国企业对其投资的主要因素;其他变量技术禀赋、政治稳定性以及与东道国的距离没有通过显著性检验;在子样本的检验中,子样本与全样本的回归结果存在差异,而且子样本的实证结果也各不相同,表明中国对"一带一路"沿线地区直接投资的影响因素差异较大。基于以上研究本文提出了相关的政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 30 countries from 2007 to 2015, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of China＇s FDI to the ＂Belt and Road＂ countries with the application of Extended Gravity Model. The results show that market size, income per capita, resources endowment and distance from host coun- try are the main factors which influence China＇s FDI to these countries, while other factors including political stability and technical endowment of the host country are not tested. In the test of subsamples, the empirical results are different from that of the whole sample, and the empirical results among those subsamples are also quite different, which implies that there is huge difference between the influencing factors of China＇s FDI to the ＂Belt and Road＂ countries. Therefore, the paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions based on the research results.