金融发展、估值效应与外部失衡调节--基于两类金融渠道的比较研究

Financial Development, Valuation Effect and External Imbalance Adjustment——A Comparative Study on Two Financial Channels

本文利用38国1981—2014年短面板数据,研究汇率渠道和资产收益率渠道是否因金融发展水平不同对一国外部失衡调节产生非线性效应及其差异。发现:银行贷存比指标、权益证券投资指标和金融开放水平指标的差异,使两类金融渠道均对外部失衡调节产生门限效应。而二者共同解释了中美金融渠道调节失衡效用不同的原因:在金融发展差异的影响下,汇率渠道对中美两国失衡调节发挥了相似正效应,但收益率渠道的效用却存在国别差异。因此中国需要深化以提高收益率渠道效用为目标的金融发展,维持现行汇率政策稳定,增加股权投资比重,在金融稳定前提下审慎扩大金融开放,以提高金融渠道的总体调节功效。

Based on data from 1981 to 2014 in 38 countries, this paper studies whether the exchange rate and the return of asset channel have a non-linear effect on the external imbalances in consideration of financial development. The paper finds that the differences in the bank loan-to-deposit ratio, the equity investment net inflow and the level of financial openness make both financial channels have a threshold effect on imbalances. This can be used to explain the differenc- es in imbalance adjusted by financial channels between China and the U.S. Un- der the influence of financial development differences, the exchange rate channel has a similar effect, but the effect of the return of asset channel is different. Therefore, China should push forward the financial development aimed at improving the effectiveness of return channel, maintain current exchange rate policy, in- crease equity investment, and expand financial openness on the premise of finan- cial stability to improve the effect of financial channels.