政府债务会影响财政支出的乘数效应吗?——来自跨国面板数据的经验证据

Does Government Debt Affect Multiplier Effect of Fiscal Expenditure? A Cross-country Analysis

文章在构建一个局部均衡模型的基础上,采用150个国家(地区)2000-2014年的面板数据,实证考察了政府债务对财政支出乘数效应的影响,得到了与理论预期一致的经验证据。结果表明:(1)政府债务会显著影响财政支出的乘数效应。随着政府债务水平的提高,财政支出的乘数效应趋于减弱。尤其是在克服内生性问题之后,这一结论仍然成立;(2)政府债务作用存在显著的非线性特征。当政府债务占GDP的比重突破88%的阈值后,财政支出的乘数效应会在低债务国家和高债务国家之间发生非常迅速的逆向转换;(3)对中国这样的低债务国家,顺周期的财政政策运用是非常有效的。而对美国、希腊等已经处于高债务水平的国家,采取逆周期的财政政策才能避免潜在的经济波动风险。

Is it in line with the typical facts of developed economies？ Can government debt significantly affect multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure in other types of economies？ If so,how to assess the moderate level of government debt？ To answer these questions,this paper firstly constructs a local equilibrium model to theoretically analyze the effects of government debt on fiscal expenditure multiplier.Secondly,this paper uses LSDV model and panel data of 150 countries from 2000 to 2014,including developed countries,emerging markets and developing countries,to empirically analyze the effects of government debt on multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure.This paper also adopts military expenditure as a valid instrument variable to control endogeneity between fiscal expenditure and output by 2 SLS.Finally,this paper assesses the moderate level of government debt by using PSTR model.It comes to the following conclusions：firstly,the empirical evidence is in line with theoretical expectations.With an increase in government debt,multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure tends to weaken.Secondly,there is a significant non-linear characteristic of government debt.When the proportion of government debt to GDP exceeds 88%,multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure reverses rapidly from positive to negative between low-debt and high-debt countries.Thirdly,the usage of pro-cyclical fiscal policy is very effective for the low-debt countries like China.As for the countries already at high debt level like the United States and Greece,it is necessary to take counter-cyclical fiscal policy so as to avoid the potential risk of economic fluctuations.The conclusion above is helpful for assessing the moderate level of China＇s government debt and stabilizing government expectation of fiscal policy.Although China＇s government debt is not high so far,the issue of hidden debt could not be underestimated.Therefore,China should thoroughly assess the government debt and control it within a moderate range,thus promoting the sustainability of its pro-cyclical fiscal policy.