全球变化对生态脆弱区资源环境承载力的影响研究

Study on the Effects of Global Change on Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity in Ecological Fragile Zones in China

我国生态脆弱区占国土面积的一半以上,在全球变化和人类活动双重影响下,其生态服务功能逐渐减弱,资源环境承载力下降,严重威胁着区域生态安全与可持续发展。尽管国内外学者已对资源环境承载力的概念体系、评估方法等开展了大量研究工作,但是对生态脆弱区资源环境承载力形成过程及其对全球变化响应机理的认识还不够深入,致使其理论体系和评估方法还不够完善,关于全球变化对生态脆弱区资源环境承载力影响的评估结果还存在很大不确定性。本项目以我国典型生态脆弱区为对象,采用联网观测、联网控制实验、样带—区域调查等手段,开展关键资源环境要素时空变化特征和过程及其对全球变化的响应机理研究,发展资源环境承载力形成理论和生态系统演变与突变转型理论,构建资源环境承载力与资源环境系统脆弱性评估的指标体系及软件平台,准确评估全球变化对生态脆弱区资源环境承载力的影响,确定全球增暖1.5℃情景下的资源环境系统发生转折的阈值,编制生态脆弱区资源环境承载力和资源环境系统脆弱性高精度分布图,服务于国家对生态脆弱区生态安全与可持续发展的重大需求。

Ecological fragile zones cover more than half of the land area of China. Under effects of both global change and huaman activities, ecological service function of these zones are gradually weakening and thus leads to a decrease in resources and environment carrying capacity. Consequently, zonal ecological security and sustainable development are seriously threatened. Many scientistes have exlpored the concept system of resources and environment carrying capacity as well as its evaluation approaches, but it still remains unclear about the formation mechanism of resources and environment carrying capacity in such ecological fragile zones and their responses to global change. As a result, up to date the theory frame and evaluation approaches of resources and environment carrying capacity are deficient, leading to big uncertainties in evaluation results of resources and environment carrying capacity in the ecological fragile zones. Therefore, it becomes a hot topic which is urgently required to be solved for regional sustainable development. This project focuses on the typical ecological fragile zones of China. Networks for observations, experiments and investigations are combined to obtain field data and to clarify the spatiotemporal charaterisctis of key resources and environments as well as various processes and their respones to global change. Accordingly, the formation theory of resources and environment carrying capacity as well as the thoery of ecological succession and transition will be developed to establish the evaluation index carrying capacity and environment system of resources and environment and the vulnerability of the resources system for better evaluation on effects of global change. On this basis, the threshold for the tranition of resources and environment system will be predicted under 1.5 ℃ global warming scenario. Finally, a high resolution distribution map for the resources and environment carrying capacity and the vulnerability of the resources and environment system will be made sercive for zonal ecological security and sustainable development as well as the regional policy-making.