明清时期江苏地区旱涝灾害与气候变化的关系

Relationship between the drought-floods and climatic change in Jiangsu region during the Ming and Qing dynasties

通过对江苏地区1368-1911年旱涝灾害资料的统计和整理,利用滑动平均、累积距平及小波分析等方法探讨分析了明清时期该地区旱涝灾害与气候变化的关系。结果表明:1368-1911年江苏地区共发生旱涝灾害362次,其中旱灾发生108次,涝灾发生254次,在旱涝灾害中以涝灾为主;明清时期江苏地区旱涝灾害具有显著的阶段性特征,旱涝灾害在年内具有显著的季节变化特征,在时间尺度上大致存在7a、11a、17a和22a 4个周期,与太阳活动周期有着密切关系;明清时期江苏地区旱涝灾害在空间分布上具有明显的区域差异,整体上呈现出西部多于东部、南部多于北部的变化特点;明清时期江苏地区旱涝灾害的发生与长江中下游地区气候变化有很好的对应关系,18世纪60年代以来,人类活动对全球气候环境的影响导致区域性旱涝灾害频繁发生。

By collecting and sorting the drought and flood disasters of literature in Jiangsu region during the Ming and Qing dynasties,the relationship between the drought-flood disasters and its climatic change in Jiangsu region during 1368-1911 were analyzed by the accumulative anomaly method,moving average method and wavelet analysis. The results show that 362 times of drought and flood disasters occurred in Jiangsu region during1368-1911; in which drought and flood disasters took place 108 and 254 times,respectively; so it was given priority to flood disasters. There were obvious stage characteristics for drought and flood disasters. It had prominently seasonal variation characteristics within one year; it also existed 7a,11 a,17a and 22 a of oscillation on time scale,so it had relationship with sunspot activity cycle. The spatial differences of the two disasters were very evident in some districts; it was occurred in the western region more than in eastern region,the southern region more than in the northern region. Drought and flood disasters had good relationship with the lower reaches of the Yangtze River climate change in Jiangsu region during the Ming and Qing dynasties. Since the 1760 s,the influence of human activities on the global climate environment lead to regional drought and flood disasters occurred frequently.