基于传染病模型的网络谣言传播与控制研究

A study on netw ork rumor spreading and control based on epidemic model

网络谣言是谣言在互联网空间的映射,是指通过网络介质传播的没有事实依据的话语。选取传染病模型的研究方法对网络谣言传播与控制进行研究,同时将种群动力学的Logistic增长曲线引入传染病模型,使用饱和增长率作为接触传播率,建立具有种群动力学和饱和增长率的SEIR网络谣言传播模型。然后通过对系统的平衡点及稳定性进行讨论,对网络谣言未来的发展趋势进行预测和研判。模型模拟结果显示,对谣言的扩散影响最大的是所占比例较少的对于谣言感兴趣的那部分人群,也就是节点度较高的那部分网民群体。

Network rumor is the mapping of rumor in cyberspace,which means the non-factual discourses are spread through the internet media. In this paper,the method of epidemic model is chosen to study the spreading and control of network rumor. This paper introduces the growth curve of Logistic population dynamics into the model of infectious disease,uses the saturated growth rate as the contact rate,and establishes the model of SEIR network rumor spreading with population dynamics and saturated growth rate. Through discussing the balance and stability of the system,the future trend of the network rumors is forecast and analyzed. Model simulation results show that the biggest influence on the spreading of rumor is those small proportion of people who are interested in rumors,that is,the higher part of the node groups of internet users.