美国地缘政治战略演变中的遏制思维:从“选择性遏制”到“印太战略”

The Containment Thinking in the Evolution of American Geopolitical Strategy: from “Selective Containment” to “Indo-Pacific” Strategy

地缘政治战略理论是美国制定外交政策及全球战略的理论基础。将潜在对手遏制在一个地缘经济范围内,是维护美国战略利益的需要。"选择性遏制"的思维贯穿于整个冷战过程,也为华盛顿主导的遏制中国联盟所使用。但是随着中国和印度在亚洲的同时崛起,以及全球经济及地缘政治重心由大西洋向"印太"地区的历史性转移,"印太"地区作为一个整体日益受到美国、澳大利亚、日本等国政府的关注。2017年11月,特朗普在APEC会议上提出了新的亚洲政策构想——"印太战略"。这一战略的提出,既是特朗普政府调整外交政策的需要,也是美国应对中国"一带一路"倡议可能带给其巨大压力之举,还是美国实行"诱导性"战术需要的一个载体。可以说,未来中美两国在"印太"一线围堵与突破的战略博弈将更加激烈。处在中美印"战略三角"格局中的中国和印度在印度洋上的安全合作对于两国来说是双赢的策略,如何推进两国大步迈向合作,目前虽有难度,但仍有多种努力的途径。

Geopolitical strategy theory is the basis for the US to set its foreign policy and global strategy. To maintain its strategic interest, the US has to contain its potential rivals in a geo-economic zone. ＂Selective containment＂ mentality went through the cold war period, and was adopted by the alliance dominated by Washington to contain China. However,with the simultaneous rise of China and India in Asia, and the historic shift of the global economic and geopolitical center from Atlantic Ocean to ＂Indo-Pacific＂ region, the ＂Indo-Pacific＂ region as a whole has received increasingly more attention from the governments of the US, Australia and Japan. In November of 2017, President Trump put forward at the APEC meetings a new version of Asian policy, namely, ＂Indo-Pacific＂ strategy, which is necessary for the Trump administration to adjust its foreign policy, an action taken by the US to deal with the potential pressure from China＇s ＂Belt and Road Initiative＂, and also a carrier for the US to carry out its ＂induced＂ tactics. China and the US, so to speak, will engage in more fierce strategic game of containment vs. breakthrough in ＂Indo-Pacific＂ region. As China and India are both situated in the ＂strategic triangle＂ of China, India and the US, the security cooperation between China and India over the Indian Ocean is a win-win strategy for both. There are difficulties to push the two counties to march toward cooperation, but many feasible approaches still remain.