基于改进灰色GM(1,1)模型的三峡库区工业废水量预测

PREDICTION OF INDUSTRIAL WASTEWATER DISCHARGE FROM THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA BASED ON IMPROVED GREY MODEL

三峡库区工业废水排放量大,对库区水生态环境安全造成严重危害。为了取得较高精度且适合长期预测工业废水量的模型,以三峡库区2006—2012年工业废水排放量数据作为原始数据进行建模,并用2013年的数据检验结果。对灰色GM(1,1)模型和3种改进灰色GM(1,1)模型分别建模并进行精度比较,根据"新信息优先"原理,将选出的最佳改进模型与新陈代谢模型结合,抛弃最旧的数据,不断补充新的数据,重复建模,构建三峡库区2014—2020年工业废水排放量预测模型。结果表明:改进灰色GM(1,1)模型方法三结合新陈代谢模型能够较为准确地预测库区工业废水排放量,且精度高于灰色GM(1,1)模型,在未来7年里库区工业废水排放量呈现出缓慢下降的趋势。预测结果可为政府和有关部门制定该地区的环境保护政策、保护当地生态、合理安排社会经济环境的和谐发展提供参考。

The industrial wastewater discharge is more and more critical for water ecological environment security of Three Gorges Reservoir Area（TGRA）.To obtain a model which could achieve high precision and be suit for long-term prediction,this paper took industrial wastewater discharge of TGRA from 2006 to 2012 as raw data for modeling,and tested the predicting results of 2013.The traditional Grey Model and the three kinds of improved Grey Model were established to predict respectively,and the optimal model with best precision was chosen to combine with metabolism model.According to the principle of ＂priority to get new information ＂,abandoning the old data,constantly supplementing new data,repeating modeling,the optimal improved Grey Model was established to predict the industrial wastewater discharge of TGRA from 2014 to 2020.The results indicated that the amount of industrial wastewater presented a slow downward trend in TGRA over the next seven years.The optimal improved Grey Model could precisely predict industrial wastewater discharge of TGRA with reasonable accuracy to provide scientific principles for the water resources controlling plans and the environmental protection for local region and our country.