1985-2015年京津冀地区城市建设用地时空演变特征及驱动因素研究

Spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of urban construction land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1985-2015

长期以来土地利用/覆被变化一直是全球关注的热点话题,研究城市建设用地时空演变特征,准确定位城市功能是促进城市科学、持续发展的重要保障。以京津冀地区13个城市1985-2015年的城市建设用地为研究对象,运用定量与定性结合的方法,分析城市建设用地时空演变特征;利用多元线性回归、通径分析、地理探测器等方法,诊断城市建设用地时间演化过程与空间演变格局分异的主导驱动因子,通过深入分析各主导因子的驱动机制,对京津冀的城市发展进行功能定位。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区城市建设用地的扩张规模、速率、方向和稳定性等存在明显的差异,将城市类型分为协调稳定型、协调波动型、不协调稳定型、不协调波动型;(2)城市建设用地时间演化过程的主导驱动因子包括GDP指数、人口密度指数、财政收入指数,空间演变格局差异的主导因子包括到城市中心距离、到主要河流距离、到主要公路距离;(3)根据分析结果,将京津冀地区13个城市规划为核心经济引领城市、重点经济拓展城市和稳定经济涵养城市,对促进京津冀地区协调统筹和一体化发展具有参考价值。

Land use and land-cover change has received great attention from scientists all over the world for a long time. In particular, studying the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban construction land and orienting the urban function accordingly is significant for promoting urban sustainable and scientific development. This paper focused on the urban construction land of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1985-2015 and analyzed their spatial-temporal characteristics by both quantitative and qualitative methods. Then, the driving factors of differentiation on temporal evolution and spatial pattern of urban construction land were detected by multiple linear regression, path analysis and geographic detector method. Based on the dominant mechanism of driving factors, function orientation of urban development in the study region was proposed. The major results were showed as follows. First, there were obvious spatial differences of expansion, speed, direction and stability of urban construction land, and the 13 cities can be divided into stable and coordinated type, fluctuant and coordinated type, stable and uncoordinated type, fluctuant and uncoordinated type. Second, the main driving factors of the temporal evolution of urban construction land in this region included GDP index, population density, and financial income index, while the dominant factors of spatial evolution of urban construction land included distance to the city center, distance to the main river, and distance to the main highway. Finally, according to these results, the 13 cities were accurately and scientifically divided into the core economic leading cities, key economic development cities, and economic stable and conservation cities, which provide some references for the coordinated and integrated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.