基于三角模型的特大山地城市城乡结合区土地利用系统风险评价——以重庆市巴南区为例

Risk Assessment of Land Use System in Urban-rural Border Area of Mountainous Big City Based on Triangle Model——A Case Study of Ba′nan District,Chongqing City

山地城市城乡结合区土地利用系统的安全稳定是山地城市健康发展的关键。收集2004年、2007年、2010年、2012年、2014年、2015年的各种数据,通过三角模型对重庆市巴南区的土地利用系统风险进行研究。结果表明:2004—2015年巴南区的土地利用系统风险等级一直处于不安全等级,但波动小,风险处于稳定状态;非经济社会风险指数不断降低,从2004年的0.82降低到2015年的0.74,生态环境风险指数不断增加,从2004年的0到2015年的0.29,巴南区的土地利用系统风险状况未能改善,主要是因为非自然资源风险指数没有下降。通过分析研究山地城市城乡结合区土地利用系统存在的问题,提前发现并解决巴南区土地利用系统可能存在的问题和风险,同时为其相关政策的制定和管理提供参考和科学依据。

The security and stability of land use system in the urban- rural integration area of mountainous cities were the key to the scientific and reasonable development of mountainous cities. Thise paper collected various basic data of 2004,2007,2010,2012,2014 and 2015 about the social economy, natural resources and ecological environment in Banan District, Chongqing, and did the graded study of the land use system risk Banan District of Chongqing City through the Triangle model. The results showed that： The risk level of land use system was at an unsafe level from 2004 to 2015 in Banan District. However, the risk of land use system fluctuates small and its risk statute was relatively stable in the long term. The non- economic and social risk index was continuously decreasing, from 0.82 in 2004 to 0.74 in 2015, at the same time, the eco- environmental risk index was continuously increasing, rapidly increasing from 0 in 2004 to 0.29 in 2015. The fundamentally overall improvement in the land - use risk profile of Banan District couldnot be fundamentally due to the fact that the non - natural resource risk index was not declined, this meant that the natural resource risk was risen. This paper analyzed and studied the existing problems of land use system in the urban - rural integration area of mountainous cities, found and solved the problems and risks that may exist in land use system of Banan District in advance, and at the same time provided reference and scientific basis for the formulation and management of related policies.