气候变化下的三角洲城市韧性规划研究

RESILIENT PLANNING OF DELTA CITIES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

三角洲城市是一个特殊、复杂的生态-人工系统。水系冲击形成的地形地貌条件、大量建设产生的地基沉降现象以及城市蔓延造成的生境破坏,使得三角洲城市更容易受到由气候变化带来的潮汐、风暴潮以及暴雨的侵蚀。本文首先分析了三角洲城市更具脆弱性的原因,即特殊的自然基底与快速城市化的矛盾是产生三角洲城市脆弱性的内在原因,气候变化是加剧三角洲城市脆弱性的外在因素,认为韧性发展是未来三角洲城市发展优先考虑的对策。其次,讨论了韧性城市所具有的特征、模型、评估指标、多尺度生命周期、韧性演进等问题,重点从韧性城市的视角研究了曾经遭受气候灾害的若干三角洲城市的规划理念,推演了三角洲城市韧性发展的逻辑框架。第三,提出了三角洲城市韧性发展的目标,即通过规划调控协同三角洲城市系统各要素,持续推进整体应对气候变化扰动的能力。第四,提出了三角洲城市韧性规划调控的核心思想是多元与多样的基础设施、冗余与跨尺度的网络联系、自组织与自我更新的区域/街区/建筑/景观格局。最后,提出了六个在韧性规划实践中值得进一步研究的问题。

Delta city is a complex eco-man made system. Its unique conditions of low altitude, land subsidence, and rapid urbanization make it more vulnerable when being subject to risks such as tide, storm surge, rainstorm, etc. caused by climate change. Firstly, this paper explains that delta city is vulnerable because of conflicts between its natural conditions and rapid urbanization, as well as climate changes. Secondly, based on the characteristics, model, evaluation indexes, multi-scaled life cycle, evolution of resilience, and so on of resilient cities, it analyzes planning strategies of some delta cities which have suffered natural disasters from a resilient city perspective and infers a logic resilience development framework. Thirdly, it proposes that general resilience development objective of delta cities is to promote their ability to deal with climate change. Fourthly, the key thoughts in the delta city resilience planning regulation are plurality and diversified infrastructure, redundancy and multi-scaled networking, self- organized and self-renewal region / neighborhood / architecture / landscape layout. Finally, it puts forward six problems in resilience planning practices which are worthy of further study.