宁波市6种大气污染物暴露与孕妇早产关系的时间序列分析

A time-series analysis on association between exposure to six air pollutants and preterm birth in Ningbo

[目的]分析宁波市6种大气污染物[细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、粗颗粒物(PM_(10))、二氧化硫(SO_2)、二氧化氮(NO_2)、一氧化碳(CO)、臭氧(O_3)]暴露对孕妇早产的影响。[方法]采用时间序列的广义线性分布滞后模型,将宁波市2014年1月—2015年12月每日早产人次的长期趋势、气象因素、星期几效应等混杂因素控制后,分析6种大气污染物质量浓度对早产人次的滞后效应和累积效应。[结果]PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2每升高10μg/m^3,CO每升高0.1 mg/m^3,对增加早产人次存在滞后效应,RR及其95%CI分别为:PM_(2.5)滞后1 d,1.015(1.000~1.032);SO_2当日及滞后2、3、4 d,1.073(1.016~1.133)、1.053(1.000~1.109)、1.060(1.009~1.115)、1.062(1.010~1.116);NO_2当日及滞后1 d,1.031(1.005~1.058)、1.027(1.002~1.054);CO滞后3 d,1.350(1.079~1.688)。6种污染物中只有SO_2对早产人次增加存在1周和2周的累积效应,RR及其95%CI分别为1.099(1.019~1.186)、1.091(1.001~1.189)。[结论]大气污染物暴露能增加早产的发生,对增加早产人次存在滞后效应和累积效应。

[ Objective ] To analyze the effects of exposure to six air pollutants [fine particulate matters （PM2.5）, coarse particulate matters （PM10）, sulfur dioxide （SO2）, nitrogen dioxide （NO2）, carbon monoxide （CO）, and ozone （O3）] on preterm birth in Ningbo. [ Methods ] A generalized linear distributed lag model for time-series data was adopted. The effects of the concentrations of six air pollutants on preterm birth from January 2014 to December 2015 in Ningbo were assessed after controlling confounding factors such as long-term trends, meteorological factors, and day of the week. [ Results ] Significant lag effects of PM2.5, SO2, NO2 （each 10 μg/m3 increase）, and CO （each 0.1 mg/m3 increase） were identified on preterm birth, with RR （95%CI） of 1.015 （1.000-1.032） for PM2.5 on lag1; 1.073 （1.016-1.133）, 1.053 （1.000-1.109）, 1.060 （1.009-1.115）, and 1.062（1,010-1.116） for SO2 on lag0, lag2, lag3, and lag4; 1.031 （1.005-1.058） and 1.027 （1.002-1.054） for NO2 on lag0 and lagl; and 1.350 （1.079-1.688） for CO on lag3, respectively. Significant accumulative effects were only shown for SO2 on preterm birth, with RR（95%CI-） of 1.099（1.019-1.186） and 1.091 （1.001-1.189） for average 1 week and 2 weeks of accumulation. [ Conclusion ] Exposure to air pollutants may contribute to the risk of preterm birth, showing both lag effects and accumulative effects.