京津冀CO_2排放的时空差异及影响因素研究

Identifying driving forces of CO_2 emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from temporal and spatial angles

研究京津冀CO_2排放的时空特性及影响因素,对实现京津冀生态环境协同治理具有重要的理论及实践意义。本文首先对2000—2014年京津冀CO_2排放的时空特性进行了分析,然后利用LMDI分解方法对京津冀CO_2排放的影响因素进行总体分析。并在此基础上,结合LMDI分解方法和M-R空间分解方法,本文具体分析了京津冀CO_2排放时空差异的影响因素。研究发现:(1)研究期内京津冀CO_2排放增长迅速,从2000年的3.67亿t增长到2014年的10.02亿t。其中,河北对京津冀CO_2排放贡献最大,达到72.02%。(2)经济总量(贡献度:152.17%)是导致京津冀CO_2排放增长的主要因素。能源利用效率(贡献度:-56.29%)和能源结构调整(贡献度:-34.39%)是抑制京津冀CO_2排放增长的主要因素。此外,产业结构调整、收入提高和城镇化也是导致京津冀CO_2排放增长的重要因素。(3)京津冀各地区CO_2排放差异不断扩大。经济总量大和能源利用效率低是河北CO_2排放高于京津翼平均水平的主要原因,以优质能源为主的能源结构是北京CO_2排放低于京津翼平均水平的主要原因。

Exploring temporal and spatial pattern evolution and driving forces for the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region has important theoretical and practical significance in achieving collaborative governance of the ecological environment. This study analyzed CO2 emissions of the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region over 2000-2014 from temporal and spatial angles. Using the LMDI method,we generally explored driving forces of CO2 emissions. Then, combining LMDI method and M-R spatial decomposition method, this study identifies the key driving forces of the changes and the differences of CO2 emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. We found that there has been a significant increase in CO2 emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, from 0. 37 billion tons in2000 to 1. 00 billion tons in 2014. Accumulatively, Hebei province contributes most of 72. 02% to CO2 emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2000-2014. Increase in economic output plays a significant role in increasing the CO2 emissions, with contribution of 152. 17%. Both energy efficiency improvement（contribution degree：-56. 29 %） and energy structure adjustment（contribution degree：-34. 39 %） are important factors to reduce CO2 emissions in the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region. In addition, industrial structure adjustment, income improvement and urbanization are significant factors affecting CO2 emissions. Gaps in CO2 emissions between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions and the average level expanded during 2000-2014. High economic output and low energy efficiency resulted in the higher CO2 emissions in Hebei than the average. However, clean-energy-dominated energy structure plays a dominant role in lowing CO2 emissions of Beijing.