劳动力迁徙与工业全要素生产率省际分化

Labor Migration and the Provincial Differentiation of Industrial TFP

针对工业全要素生产率省际显著分化趋势,文章通过引入劳动力迁徙因素,采用数据包络分析与具有时变特征的面板固定效应、广义最小二乘等计量模型,从劳动力迁徙导致的资本与劳动技术分化机制、全要素生产率的分化机理方面对省际全要素生产率的分化特征和动态演化趋势进行了分时段、分区域的实证研究。结果表明:进入人口红利关闭期的流出省份劳动要素呈现出供给减少的新现象导致资本要素边际产出递减加速、资本技术效率急剧下滑与劳动技术效率上涨趋缓。而劳动力供给缺口的不断补充延缓了资本对劳动的替代,避免了经济较高速度增长中资本替代劳动可能带来的资本技术效率下滑,加速了劳动技术效率上涨。劳动力流入带动的劳动、资本技术效率提升促进了流入地区全要素生产率上涨。劳动力流出虽推动劳动技术效率上涨,但仍不足以弥补资本技术效率的下滑,最终导致了流出省份全要素生产率显著下滑。劳动力迁徙改变的劳动要素供给通过资本、劳动技术效率导致了工业全要素生产率省际分化的严重后果。

Under the background of the significant provincial differentiation of industrial TFP and by using econometric models including DEA, fixed effects of panel data with time - varying characteristics and GLS, the paper introduces labor migration factors into the research and empiri- cally explores the differentiation characteristics and the dynamic evolutionary trend of provincial TFP at different times in different regions from three aspects, including the differentiation mecha- nism of capital and labor technology caused by labor migration and the differentiation mechanism of TFP. The results show that labor factors of the labor outflow provinces in the closing period of de- mographic dividend tend to have decreasing labor supply, which further leads to the increase of decreasing marginal output of capital elements, rapid decline of capital technical efficiency, and the slow increase of labor technical efficiency. However, the continuous supply of labor delayed the substitution of capital for labor, avoided the decline of capital technical efficiency and acceler- ated the increase of labor technical efficiency in the high speed economic growth. The inflow of la- bor and the improvement of capital technical efficiency promote the increase of TFP in regions with labor inflow. Although the outflow of labor increases labor technical efficiency, it is not enough to make up the decline of capital technical efficiency, which finally leads to significant decline of TFP in provinces with labor outflow. The supply of labor elements changed by labor migration leads to the serious result of provincial differentiation of industrial TFP through capital and labor technical efficiency.