2014-2030年我国农业剩余劳动力转移趋势预测与管理

The Trend Forecast and Management of the Chinese Agricultural Surplus Labor Transfer During 2014-2030

本文在前人研究基础上,创新地提出了农业剩余劳动力总量和转移数量的预测模型,以1978-2013年间我国农业剩余劳动力转移情况为样本,利用比较劳动生产率推算法对农业剩余劳动力转移现状进行分析,并对2014-2030年农业转移人口趋势进行预测。研究表明,未来我国农业剩余劳动力总量和转移数量将呈现逐年递减趋势,到2018年将可能出现农业剩余劳动力供给不足的问题。依据预测结果,本文提出了促进农业剩余劳动力合理转移、高效配置和加快推进农业转移人口市民化的对策建议。

Based on the previous studies,this paper develops a model to forecast the number of the agricultural surplus labors and the transfer number of agricultural surplus labors. With the transfer of agricultural surplus labors from 1978 to 2013 as sample,this paper adopts comparative labor productivity＇s recursive algorithm to analyze the current situation and forecast the trend of the agriculture surplus labors in 17 years. The research shows that the total number of agricultural surplus labors and the transfer of agricultural surplus labors are decreasing year by year,the absence of agriculture surplus labor will appear by around 2018. According to the forecast,we put forward countermeasure suggestions on how to promote the transfer of agricultural surplus labors reasonably and efficiently.