“双重”风险评估模型的研究及实例应用

Applications of the“double”risk assessment model

针对当前化工企业风险评估模型种类繁多,但均存在不能客观、准确反映风险值及各风险因子权重无法合理确定的问题,建立了一种"双重"风险评估模型,通过利用Delphi法对层次分析法(AHP)进行改进,从而使得出的风险因子权重值更接近实际;其次,将风险矩阵法和Borda序值法相结合对企业各风险因子的影响度进行排序,进而得出"生产装置未定期检查"和"飓风"这两种因子对化工厂的风险影响最大的结论。该风险评估模型能有效避免传统方法的弊端,最终评估结果(风险值为0.608)与实际风险辨识结果一致,为化工企业的防灾、减灾、应急救援提供了理论依据和指导方向。

A variety of risk assessment models are currently employed in chemical enterprises, but they all suffer from the same problem whereby they cannot objectively and accurately reflect the risk values and determine the weight of each risk factor. In this paper, a ＂double＂ risk assessment model has been established, by using the Delphi method to improve the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） method, which makes the estimated risk factor more scientific and objective. The subsequent step, combining the risk matrix method with the Borda count method, can be used to sort the degree of influence of each risk factor, and in this way we can account for ＂failure to carry out regular checks of production equipment＂ and ＂hurricanes＂, two factors which have a big impact on the risks associated with a chemical plant. The new risk assessment model can effectively avoid the disadvantages of traditional methods by determining the risk weights, and gives a final assessment result （the calculated risk value was 0. 608） that is very close to reality, thus providing a theoretical basis and guidance for chemical disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency rescue.