经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法

‘New Southward Policy’of Taiwan,China Under the View of Trade:Based on the Ways of SNA and VAR

中国台湾“新南向政策”倍受社会关注。基于经贸视角及2001~2015年贸易数据,在分析经济依赖度及国际竞争力基础上,通过社会网络分析（SNA）方法探讨中国大陆在贸易网络中的地位及其对中国台湾的影响,利用VAR脉冲响应函数对比分析中国台湾与中国大陆、新南向国家的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的影响。研究结果表明：新南向国家对中国大陆的经济依赖度远高于其对中国台湾的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是中国台湾难以替代的;中国台湾对中国大陆的经济依赖度明显高于其对新南向国家的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是新南向国家难以替代的;中国大陆在贸易网络格局中处于核心地位,对于提升中国台湾贸易网络地位起着重要促进作用;中国大陆与中国台湾的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的正向效应明显高于新南向国家。中国台湾当局应秉承“九二共识”,抓住机遇,积极推进“新南向政策”与“一带一路”倡议融合,加强同中国大陆的经贸合作与交流,促进其经济稳定持续发展。

New Southward Policy＇ of Taiwan,China has been concerned widely since it was put out. Based on the perspective of foreign trade and the trade data from 2001 to 2015, after the analysis of economic depen- dence and international competitiveness, the paper analyzed the status of China's Mainland in the trade network and its impact on Taiwan ,China through social network analysis, and discussed the influences on the economy of Taiwan, China according to the foreign trade date between ＇New Southward＇ countries, China's Mainland and Taiwan,China through the VAR impulse response function. The results show that： For the ＇New South- ward＇ nations, the degree of its economic dependence on China's Mainland is much higher than that of Taiwan, China, and the trade status of China's Mainland is far higher than that of Taiwan,China; for Taiwan,China, the de- gree of its economic dependence on China's Mainland is significantly higher than that of the ＇New Southward＇ countries, and the trade status of China's Mainland is significantly higher than that of the ＇ New Southward＇ na- tions; for the ＇New Southward＇ countries, the foreign trade status of China's Mainland is irreplaceable by Tai- wan,China. Meanwhile, for Taiwan,China, the foreign trade status of China's Mainland is irreplaceable by the ＇New Southward＇ nations; China's Mainland is the central of the trade network pattern, which plays an impor- tant role in promoting Taiwan,China status in the trade network; the positive effect of foreign trade between China's Mainland and Taiwan,China on the economic development of Taiwan,China is significantly higher than that of the ＇New Southward＇ countries. In order to boost economy, the Taiwan authority should adhere to the ＇1992 Consensus＇, and vigorously promote the integration of＇New Southward policy＇ and ＇The Belt and Road Initiatives＇, strengthen the economic and trade cooperation and exchanges with China's Mainland.