东北地区人口结构与经济发展耦合关系研究

The Coupling Relationship Between Population Structure and Economic Development in Northeast China

以东北地区34个地级市为研究对象,利用灰色关联模型和耦合度模型,对东北地区人口结构与经济发展的耦合关系进行分析,结果表明：（1）人口结构与经济发展整体处于中高等关联水平,人口文化素质和城市化水平对东北地区经济发展的驱动作用明显;（2）自2000年以来,东北地区人口结构与经济发展耦合关系整体经历了波动上升、平稳下降、缓慢上升的过程;（3）人口结构与经济发展相互影响、相互制约,在经济发展的不同阶段,经济发展与人口结构均处于协调发展状态,但是协调水平高低不同;（4）各省人口结构与经济发展耦合度变化差异较大,辽宁省两系统的耦合度呈现出与整个东北地区大致相同的变化趋势。

As the important old industrial base in China, the Northeast China facing the pressure of economic downturn and seriously population problem. Researching the coupling relationship between population struc- ture and economic development is significant for making the population and economic policy. This article mea- sured the correlation degree and coupling degree of Northeast China, and then analyzed the temporal and spa- tial evolution and exploring the relationship characteristics of the two systems by using the grey relationship analysis. The results show that： 1） The population structure and economic development in the upper elementa- ry level. The population cultural quality and urbanization drive the economic development obviously in North- east China; 2） During the fifteen years, the population structure and economic development experienced the fluctuant rising -fallen fairly-rising slowly. 3） Population structure and economic development affect and inter- act each other, and the two systems in the stage of coordinate in various economic development phases. The ra- tionalization of the population structure will be higher when the economy developed well, at the meanwhile, the rational population structure will drive the economic development, which makes the two systems at the co- ordinate condition. And if not, population structure and economic development will in the state of lower coordi- nation. 4） The coupling relation of population structure and economic development in Liaoning Province is the mainly cause of the Northeast China.