基于可变模糊集理论的宜昌市水资源承载能力评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Yichang City Based on Variable Fuzzy Set Theory

水资源承载能力是指某一区域某一时期内水资源系统能够支撑社会经济系统的最大规模。鉴于水资源承载能力评价中各指标属性的不确定性和模糊性,为了提高水资源评价模型评价结果的可靠性,构建了一种基于可变模糊集理论的水资源承载能力评估模型。该模型首先将评价指标分为准则层和指标层2个层次,通过层次分析法和熵值法分别确定两个层次的权重,结合可变模糊集理论运用最大贴近度准则对研究区的水资源承载能力进行综合评价。用该模型对宜昌市2009-2014年的水资源承载能力进行计算,结果表明:(1)该模型应用简便,克服了水资源承载能力评价中各指标的不确定性和模糊性问题,得出的结果更为可靠;(2)在目前的经济技术水平和发展趋势下,宜昌市水资源承载能力处于较强的水平,能够满足社会经济发展需求。

Water resources carrying capacity indicates the maximum scale of the social and economic system supported by the water resources system at a certain period in a region.In view of the uncertainty and fuzziness of the index attributes in the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity,in order to improve the reliability of evaluation results of water resources assessment model,a model of water resources carrying capacity evaluation based on variable fuzzy set is proposed.In this model,the evaluation indexes are divided into two levels,namely criterion layer and index layer,the weight of the two layers are determined by AHP and entropy method.Fuzzy sets theory is used for comprehensive evaluation of study area using the maximum nearness criterion.The model is used to calculate the carrying capacity of water resources in Yichang city for 2009 to 2014 years.The results showthat：（1） the application of this model is simple,it overcomes the uncertainty and fuzziness of each index attribute in the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and the results is more reliable;（2） the carrying capacity of water resources in Yichang is at a high level and able to meet the demand of social and economic development in the current economic and technological level and development trend.